The Pendulum Swings

A common argument — especially in the wee hours — is whether or not humankind is better off today than in some previous era of the past. The next question is what is meant by “better off”? Certainly technology has changed our lives in many ways, but does that make us better off in a moral or spiritual (for lack of better words) sense?

The futurists Alvin and Heidi Toffler observed almost 40 years ago that almost everything that we use in our daily lives had come into being in the previous lifetime. The Tofflers referred this concept as “The 100th Lifetime.” But since the time in which the Tofflers were writing, another lifetime has passed and the advent of the semi-conductor and the digital revolutioin has altered our lives in ways previously unimaginable. Moore’s Law tells us that the rate of the resultant changes will continue, at least for the immediate future, to expand at at an exponential rate.

In years past, historians noted that social philosophy changed pendulum-style — that is, history moves in cycles: The Classical Age gave way to the Renaissance, which in turn gave way to the Medieval Period, which was supplanted by a New Renaissance, which was replaced by a Neo-Classical Era and so on. Neck ties went from wide to narrow and back to wide; hemlines went up and down and back up, and on and on. Still the arc of history seemed — in spite of these fluctuations — to move toward a steady increase in tolerance and individual liberty.

This sanguine view of history, however, has been called into question in recent years. Books such as “Nickel and Dimed” and “The New Jim Crow,” when coupled with the recent dismantling of the Voting Rights Act, have caused may social observers to reevaluate their progressive assumptions on both the political and economic levels.