Apparently the Centers for Disease Control is going to revisit the vaccines-autism nonsense (link). My PhD is in Immunology and Molecular Pathogenesis, and while my research was more on the last two words than the first one, I feel I am qualified enough to vent some hot air on the topic.  Also, I have an admission to make: despite firmly believing that vaccines do NOT cause autism I reallly haven’t dived into the studies and data that have shown a lack of causation.  That is what we call confirmation bias, and while before January 21 2025 it seemed unnecessary to dig into it my bias here, recent events in Washington DC changed my thinking on that.  I want to do what we accuse conspiracy-theorists of not doing: fact check and question your beliefs.  Here goes.  One post at a time, in no specific order.

A 2012 study out of Japan (link):

Some details: they had 189 people with Autism (Spectrum Disorder) and 224 matched controls (in that they were from the same area and did not have any developmental delays).  Anyone prone to scoffing at these low numbers needs to educate themselves on how complicated these studies are.  Also, why wait for huge studies?  If you think this is an important question, you want ALL studies to be considered.  The mumps vaccine alone did give an odds ratio above 1 (meaning there could be an association between that vaccine and autism), but notice that the title (and the rest of the paper) ONLY claims there is no increased risk from the MMR vaccine or from the number of vaccines the person has had.  So does vaccination for mumps cause autism?  Depends on whether other studies come up with a similar finding.

After reading this paper two things (aside from their main finding) stick out to me:

(1) every mother in Japan is given a book (the Maternal and Child Health Handbook) to write down observations of the pregnancy and their child’s development.  It is so detailed that it doesn’t just ask the parent to estimate the color of the child’s feces, it has pictures and a numbered scale for the colors (from brown to white)*.  Numbers allow averaging of population data which allows public health officials to have a really good handle on the health of children.  In the United States, parents are asked to remember the color of the poo and there is no standard scale.  I distinctly remember being in the pediatrician’s office as my kids’ Mom and I tried to reconstruct how long it had been since the consistency of our child’s poo had changed.  More on topic are detailed questions in this Japanese handbook for each developmental period about things that are delayed in kids with autism (did they crawl?  did they walk? do they turn to look at you when you whisper to them?).  In the US we are in pediatricians’ offices struggling to remember what happened (or worse, being overly confident about our memories), while in Japan they are writing it down as it happens and answering standardized questions.  The Japanese Government helps its parents take data on the problems of childhood illness.

(2) Japan is genetically more homogenous than a lot of countries and this is important when studying Autism.  There are clearly some genetic components of the condition because the relative risk is higher if a sibling has it, but its not entirely genetic because in identical twin studies there isn’t a 100% correlation.  So in a sense, the relative genetic homogeneity of Japan cuts down on the variability in their study that genetics would play. They are asking the question “Do vaccines cause Autism?” not “Do vaccines and genetics cause Autism?”

So my confirmation biases about MMR and the number of vaccines withstood a challenge.  What about my confirmation bias about the mumps vaccine?  Stay tuned.

* liver problems can affect the color of feces.

(context: I have dealt first-hand with autism in my family)

Reference

Uno Y, Uchiyama T, Kurosawa M, Aleksic B, Ozaki N. The combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines and the total number of vaccines are not associated with development of autism spectrum disorder: the first case-control study in Asia. Vaccine. 2012 Jun 13;30(28):4292-8. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.01.093. Epub 2012 Apr 20. PMID: 22521285.

51 cases in Minnesota (USA) since May 2024, 9 new cases in September.  Most infections are occurring among unvaccinated individuals in the Somali community. State Epidemiologist Dr. Ruth Lynfield notes that 0 to 4 cases is normal for most years (1).  The beginning of this outbreak came one month after anti-vaccine activists held a meeting “for” the Somali community of Minneapolis in which two pediatricians were booed and heckled after making the case for vaccination (2).

1,287 cases of measles in an ongoing outbreak in Cote D’Ivoire, 77% of cases in children aged 1-9, 87% of them unvaccinated or unknown vaccination status(3).

“More than 1,000 cases” in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam with 4 deaths (total for 2024).  Vietnamese officials point to low vaccination rates in the region(4).

All information in this post were found through searching Promedmail.org for “Measles” or following citations therein.  Citations generated through Purdue Online Writing Lab

References

https://promedmail.org

“Twin Cities Measles Outbreak Climbs to 51 Confirmed Cases”, bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/twin-cities-measles-outbreak-climbs-to-51-confirmed-cases. Accessed 22 Oct. 2024. (link)

Dyer, Owen. “Measles Outbreak in Somali American Community Follows Anti-Vaccine Talks.” The BMJ, British Medical Journal Publishing Group, 16 May 2017, www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2378.full. (link)

“Le Ministère de La Santé Annonce 1287 Cas Confirmés de Rougeole.” Abidjan.Net News, news.abidjan.net/articles/735497/le-ministere-de-la-sante-annonce-1287-cas-confirmes-de-rougeole. Accessed 22 Oct. 2024. (link)

VnExpress. “CA Sởi Tăng Nhanh Tại Miền Nam, Xuất Hiện ổ Dịch ở Người Lớn.” Vnexpress.Net, Báo VnExpress, 16 Oct. 2024, vnexpress.net/ca-soi-tang-nhanh-tai-mien-nam-xuat-hien-o-dich-o-nguoi-lon-4804860.html. (link)

https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/resources.html

Author of many excellent books including Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and James and the Giant Peach.  I wonder how many vaccine-hesitant parents who have enjoyed these stories with their children realize the tongue lashing they would get from him if he could.  There was no available vaccine for his daughter.

Anyone who tells you that measles infection is not serious is misinformed.

Anyone who tells you the vaccines are more risky than the infection is tragically misinformed.

Reference

Roald Dahl’s Daughter Tragically Died From Measles at Seven Years Old (biography.com)

You know those times when you think you know something pretty well but then, come to find out, you don’t? I need to look up the origin of that “pride cometh before the fall” (turns out, Old Testament(1)).  I wasn’t “haughty” about it (please look that word up before you attempt judgment), but I think I have tested students on whether they remembered that “only plants make cellulose”.  Because it was true.  Except that it isn’t.  Salmonella, which is a bacteria you will remember, makes cellulose.  Even while its inside the our cells that are trying to kill it, although that oddly seems to correlate with a less virulent infection (2).  If I saw a community college teacher blathering on about this I would first think huh, maybe this is a one-off weird paper that the other Salmonella researchers don’t agree with.  It’s not (3).

References

1 – https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs%2016%3A18&version=KJV

2 – Pontes MH, Lee EJ, Choi J, Groisman EA. Salmonella promotes virulence by repressing cellulose production. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Apr 21;112(16):5183-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1500989112. Epub 2015 Apr 6. PMID: 25848006; PMCID: PMC4413311. (link)

3 – Vestby LK, Møretrø T, Ballance S, Langsrud S, Nesse LL. Survival potential of wild type cellulose deficient Salmonella from the feed industry. BMC Vet Res. 2009 Nov 23;5:43. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-5-43. PMID: 19930629; PMCID: PMC2788542. (link)

Because it doesn’t normally infect monkeys.  The original reason it was named monkeypox was because it was first discovered in captive monkeys in 1960(1).  Later research would show that monkeys in the wild CAN get infected and become sick from the virus but its very clear that they are catching it from some other animal.  Many (most?) viruses have at least some capacity to replicate in more than one species,  but most viruses and bacteria evolve to specialize on one (or a few) species to replicate in.  Somewhere out there is a “reservoir species” for mpox virus – the species that the virus has evolved to infect.  For instance, humans are the reservoir species for measles virus. Dogs are the reservoir for canine distemper virus,  which clearly started from a dog becoming infected with measles virus sometime in the 18th century but that has evolved to be a truly dog virus(2).  Measles virus itself clearly originated when a 6th Century human got a little to intimate with a cow and contracted rinderpest(3), a virus which used to infect cows until we humans vaccinated it off the planet.  The reservoir species for mpox virus is still unknown – despite the old name it isn’t monkeys and the smart bets are on some species of African rodent(4), and there are apparently quite a few of those (5).

So its mpox because this virus did not come from monkeys and perhaps they are hoping its a mouse.  What if its a species of rat or gerbil..rpox? gpox?

References

1 – PRIER JE, SAUER RM, MALSBERGER RG, SILLAMAN JM. Studies on a pox disease of monkeys. II. Isolation of the etiologic agent. Am J Vet Res. 1960 May;21:381-4. PMID: 14434871.

2 – Quintero-Gil et al 2019. Front Microbiol. Origin of Canine Distemper Virus: Consolidating Evidence to Understand Potential Zoonoses. (link) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31555226/

3 – Dux et al. 2020 Science. Measles virus and rinderpest virus divergence dated to the sixth century BCE. (link) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32554594/

4 – Atasoy MO, Naggar RFE, Rohaim MA, Munir M. Zoonotic and Zooanthroponotic Potential of Monkeypox. Adv Exp Med Biol. 2024;1451:75-90. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-57165-7_5. PMID: 38801572.

5 – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Rodents_of_Africa